ECONOMIC UPDATE

We have made it through the most difficult two quarters of the recession.  This recession hit our region, and our country, hard through the winter and early spring. Today instead of waiting for the other shoe to drop, people are starting to look for the light at the end of the tunnel.

 
That light will shine in the coming months.  We will be watching for several different levels of recovery...a local recovery, an American recovery and a global recovery.  All of these will encompass different economic pieces of data which are hard to predict.  And while each level of recovery depends on the other, they all stand alone, too.

Some key indicators to watch for include an increase in hiring, increased retail sales and increased housing values.  These are signs, not sure things, but signs that we're coming out of the trough.

Once the economy recovers, what we see on the other side may not be what we are used to.  I believe we will see some substantial changes in many industries.  We may see big opportunities for what used to be little business and some big businesses may not survive.  People and businesses made changes in order to survive the recession and they may not go back to the way it was before.

UNEMPLOYMENT UPDATE

In March 2009, Illinois unemployment was 9.4% up from 9.3% in February.  The Tri-county area saw unemployment at 8.9% which is down from 9.1% in February 2009.  Nationally, we stayed the same at 8.9% unemployment.  These numbers are not seasonally adjusted. 

One factor to consider when reviewing this information is that the current unemployment numbers include temporary layoffs and furloughs that were invoked by employers.  A large number of employers nationwide are choosing to do furloughs instead of permanently laying off employees.  This is happening to blue collar and white collar workers alike.  These are not permanently unemployed workers, but they have filed for unemployment so they are factored into these numbers.  When the economy stabilizes, it is expected many of these people will be back to work.

There is still some concern that this economic situation will force us into circumstances similar to those of the 1980’s, but luckily, our present situation is not the same as it was back then.  For example, the catalyst for this recession is much different than that of the 1980’s.  It is true that unemployment numbers have risen nationwide, but the Central Illinois area is doing much better than two decades ago.

We do not expect the unemployment rate to reach the level of the 1980’s.  In 1983 unemployment rates reached 16% in the tri-county area and people began leaving the region in search of work.  When the recession ended, we didn’t have the skill sets to match the jobs that were available.  That is called structural unemployment.  Luckily that is NOT the case in our current environment.

Our normal working unemployment figure is 5% for this region.  This includes people who are naturally transitioning with jobs, people moving into the area looking for jobs, and the chronically unemployed.  Every 1% over that equals 2000 people.  This equation shows an additional 8,000 people out of work right now.  On the flip side, we still have 192,000 who are working.  When you consider that we have 13,300 businesses in the community right now, if half of them hired just one person when we recover, we'd be back to our average unemployment.
To review the complete economic climate document - click here. 

 

UPCOMING HEARTLAND PARTNERSHIP EVENTS

The Heartland Partnership family of companies is busy with many different projects and programs.  Here’s a brief overview of a few things we have going on:

TransPORT is hosting a stakeholder’s luncheon on May 28th at the Ivy Club in Peoria Heights.  The event begins at 11:45am.  Find out what’s new with TransPORT and meet keynote speaker Jonathan Red who is the man behind an innovative idea that could reshape the shipping industry.  His ideas could lead to more environmentally friendly means of transporting goods, less congestion on the railways and roadways and a cost savings on domestic transportation of international goods.  Find out what he has to say at the stakeholder’s luncheon on May 28th at the Ivy Club in Peoria Heights.  For more information call Maureen McNamara at (309) 495-5970.

The Central Illinois Angels organization is looking for accredited investors to join together and invest in new regional startup businesses.  We are looking for high-net-worth individuals in our region who are accredited investors and ready to take a high risk to receive a high reward.  A formalized investment group like the Central Illinois Angels organization is a great way to add to and diversify your portfolio.  As a member you will become a mentor, coach, have a new business to participate in and you will be putting money in our local economy.  Plan to join us June 9th at the Peoria NEXT Innovation Center to learn more about the organization and how you can become a part of it.  For more information contact Kip McCoy at (309) 495-5925.

The Peoria Area Chamber of Commerce is helping you build your sales infrastructure with the Summer Sales Series.  Join us for a four-part seminar this summer to learn what it takes to ramp up your sales team.   Many companies may not have the resources to properly train employees to sell, but we can help.  A downturn economy is a good time to retrain, enhance your skills and get yourself better prepared for when things DO turn around.  Call Terry Best at (309) 495-5926, for more information. 

The LAUNCH Business Plan Competition encourages Central Illinoisans to start a small business. The competition is open to anyone with a new business idea that plans to start that business in the Tri-County Area. Business plans must be submitted by August 1st; preliminary rounds begin August 25th. The winning plan, to be chosen September 30th, will win cash prizes and a variety of business consulting services. For more information, contact Ken Klotz at Bradley University, (309) 677-2992, or sbdc@bradley.edu.